By Feng Li
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Additional resources for Foreign Investment in China
One major lesson learnt from the recessions in the early 1970s was the importance of large trade imbalances among major developed countries. Worries about the US deficit and the Japanese and German surpluses dominated the international economic policy debate since the 1980s. Until the mid-1990s, economists and policy-makers from Europe, the USA and Japan showed a remarkable degree of agreement that the 'twin deficits' of the United States were a grave threat to world economic growth and a major source of difficulties and uncertainties for the global economy.
The rapid growth of the 'Four Dragons' since the 1960s has been well documented. Stating in the late 1970s, the Chinese economy achieved an average annual real growth of 9 per cent (between 1978 and 1992); and between 1991 and 1995 the annual growth averaged 12 per cent (3-4 per cent higher than the planned economic growth rate for the 'eighth five year plan'). 15 Even with the Asian financial crisis, the Chinese economy is still projected to grow at 8 per cent in 1998 by stimulating domestic demand.
In spite of repeated economic crises, views about the long term future of the global economy have been rather optimistic. It has been predicted that the third world will continue to prosper, and the rich countries will gain (rather than lose) from the growing prosperity of the third world. In particular, the world economic recessions are not evenly distributed across the globe, so certain parts of the world have maintained rapid economic growth even during world economic recessions. For example, some Far East economies, particularly the 'Four Dragons' and, more recently, China, have been developing rapidly and continuously for a long time.