By Edward Chancellor
This e-book makes use of quite a few examples to illustrate how the capital cycle method of investments works, and the way it has supplied traders with market-beating returns over the last decade.
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Extra info for Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A Money Manager’s Reports 2002-15
Attempts to slow down the Chinese juggernaut could have the same impact on demand but rather 3 The World Steel Association estimates that global iron ore production doubled between 2002 and 2013. CAPITAL CYCLE REVOLUTION 33 more quickly. It also seems reasonable to expect that a prolonged period of elevated commodity prices will have a negative impact on demand, just as high oil prices in the 1970s forced improved oil efficiency on industry. This already appears to be happening in Germany, where demand for copper pipes is said to have halved from 90,000 tonnes to 45,000 tonnes over the past year, as the construction industry switches to cheaper PVC plastics.
Instead, our pick of the holiday reading this year is Cod by Mark Kurlansky. In this wonderful book, Kurlansky describes the rise and fall of the cod fishing and processing industry from the perspective of a social historian and gastronome, and the book takes the form of a culinary travelogue peppered with recipes. The recipes look appealing, but our advice is to read the book from the perspective of the capital cycle; then the industry’s rise and fall becomes even more interesting. While there has always been plenty of cod in the sea, so to speak, the identity of the trade’s beneficiaries has changed constantly.
Marathon argues that much can be learned from meeting CEOs – the ones who fly around in private jets, spend their time constructing lavish new headquarters, or are greedy and vain, generally deliver poor returns for shareholders. The greatest managers, like Björn Wahlroos at 22 CAPITAL RETURNS Finland’s Sampo, understand their industry’s capital cycle and invest in a contrarian fashion. Chapter 4 – Accidents in Waiting: The financial crisis took most of the world by surprise. Yet banks can also be analysed from a capital cycle perspective.